SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025