SPC Apr 16, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great
Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains...
Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an
expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a
longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap
a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across
the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the
day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. 

Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first
half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor
of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the
outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk
of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML
across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed
until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to
upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and
weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along
with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the
dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and
to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to
the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is
anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes
and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into
clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a
mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds.

..Grams.. 04/16/2025

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