SPC Apr 16, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible
this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central
Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Discussion...
The forecast is on track, and no change is needed to the previous
outlook.

..Smith.. 04/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/

...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight...
Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into
eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward
throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave
trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the
southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the
central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface
trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over
the central High Plains. 

Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this
evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late
afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture
interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing
central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary
will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the
warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an
isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the
eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long
hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection
that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts
would be possible with any supercells.

Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the
surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across
southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and
a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. 
Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry
subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the
surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain
low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities.

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