MD 0487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 192329Z - 200100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into
southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado
potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A
WW issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway
over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of
storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A
supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado
along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm
(along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus
of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy
downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with
the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any
storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be
capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also
be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain
relatively unimpeded inflow.
Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed
soon.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569
34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785
32689796 33059786
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN