SPC MD 489

MD 0489 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

Valid 200035Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A
locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete
supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red
River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at
least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress
northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper
60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary.
As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant,
likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued
intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed
sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved
hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential
should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as
this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences
unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also
suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at
least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization
and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado
cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654
            33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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