SPC MD 533

MD 0533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162… FOR TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM


Mesoscale Discussion 0533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin into extreme southeast
NM

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

Valid 232255Z - 240030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may persist through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing as
of 2245 UTC across the TX Trans-Pecos region. The most intense
ongoing storm is a left-moving supercell moving northward to the
west of Wink, TX. This cell may persist into southeast NM, as it
moves along a north-south oriented instability gradient into early
evening. Favorable lapse rates/buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer
shear will result in a threat of large hail for as long as this cell
persists, with a conditional threat of hail larger than golf balls.
Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible within the
relatively well-mixed environment. 

Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain severe
intensity, with somewhat cooler temperatures and stronger MLCINH
noted in the vicinity of the cell west of Fort Stockton. However,
deep-layer shear increases with southward extent due to the presence
of a subtropical jet, and the environment remains conditionally
favorable for supercells and an attendant severe hail/wind threat if
any updrafts can be sustained. Also, locally backed flow and
somewhat richer low-level moisture could support some tornado
potential if any supercell can be sustained in the region near/south
of Fort Stockton.

..Dean.. 04/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   30050448 31720379 32840349 32880274 31270247 29830254
            29200274 29040314 29080367 29240400 29520440 30050448 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

StormPrep