SPC MD 539

MD 0539 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS…SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...Central and North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241137Z - 241400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue across parts of central and
north Texas this morning. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the
primary threats. The potential for weather watch issuance is low.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
thunderstorms located from southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with
a linear cluster extending southward into central Texas. The storms
are located near a moist axis where surface dewpoints are in the mid
to upper 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The instability, combined
with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough and warm
advection are supporting the storms. In addition, the FWS WSR-88D
VWP has 0-6 km shear has 30 to 35 knots with some directional shear
in the low to mid-levels. This shear environment should be enough to
continue an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. The severe threat
may increase locally over the next hour or two, as the cells to the
south merge with the line to the north.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31449841 31309802 31359717 31729662 32439624 33209623
            33909662 34159727 33959789 33739824 33409878 32989907
            32479894 32059874 31449841 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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