Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 25 12:35:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 25 12:35:01 UTC 2025.
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM…
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