Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley.