SPC MD 548

MD 0548 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 167… FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS

Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail and tornado potential may
increase into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Lubbock in Floyd County has
recently intensified and turned right, with a confirmed tornado at
around 2315 UTC. Other cells are gradually intensifying across the
TX Panhandle and South Plains, within a weakly capped and strongly
unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) environment. The 20Z AMA
sounding was rather dry (with PW of 0.58 inches), but otherwise was
quite favorable for organized storms with steep midlevel lapse rates
and favorable deep-layer shear. Some increase in low-level moisture
quality is expected due to backing surface winds, and multiple
intense supercells may eventually evolve into early evening. 

Any mature supercell within this environment will pose a threat of
very large hail (possibly baseball-size or larger), given the
favorable thermodynamic profile. A strengthening low-level jet will
also enlarge low-level hodographs, resulting in an increasing
conditional tornado threat with time, if any supercells can
propagate east-southeastward into an increasingly moist environment.

..Dean.. 04/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33130204 34270185 34980180 35910191 36380195 36650165
            36710079 35060038 34460028 33700044 33170055 33090155
            33130204 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

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