SPC MD 549

MD 0549 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168… FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS-PECOS REGION

Mesoscale Discussion 0549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

Valid 242356Z - 250130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with large to very large hail remain possible
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing at 2345
UTC across the TX Permian Basin vicinity. Despite generally modest
large-scale forcing, strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg)
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support splitting
supercells within the weakly capped environment through early
evening. Large to very large hail will likely be the primary hazard,
especially with any persistent left-movers, while strong to locally
severe outflow winds will also be possible in the vicinity of the
strongest cells. Increasing MLCINH should result in a gradual
decrease in the severe threat later this evening.

..Dean.. 04/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31510158 30000222 29290319 29480348 29810354 30190351
            31720303 32870252 32940190 32890166 32470149 31610153
            31510158 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

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