SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025