SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO NE...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Northern Great Plains into NE...MN...northern IA... Supercell development is underway this evening across parts of western NE, with other strong to potentially severe storms expected to increase in coverage from southeast MT into western SD. The environment across parts of western NE and vicinity has become favorable for tornadoes this evening, including strong-tornado potential. See MCD 580 for more information. Some threat for hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will also persist through the evening from southeast MT into western SD. Late tonight, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, with at least an isolated threat of hail and strong/damaging gusts eventually spreading into parts of MN and northern IA before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Despite a volatile environment (as noted in the 00Z AMA sounding), storms have struggled to initiate near the dryline from western KS into the TX Panhandle. There remains a narrow window of opportunity for storm initiation near the dryline through dusk, though confidence is not high due to generally nebulous large-scale ascent. A Slight Risk has been maintained for the remaining conditional threat this evening across the southern High Plains. Farther south, a cluster of initially high-based convection earlier intensified near/east of Lubbock. If convection in this area can become surface-based, then a couple of supercells could evolve with all severe hazards possible. However, recent trends suggest this activity may continue to weaken with time. ...Central MS vicinity... A couple stronger storms persist this evening across central MS, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A general weakening trend is expected to continue with time, though some localized threat for hail or damaging gusts may continue for part of the evening. ..Dean.. 04/28/2025