SPC Apr 28, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO NE...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to
very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Northern Great Plains into NE...MN...northern IA...
Supercell development is underway this evening across parts of
western NE, with other strong to potentially severe storms expected
to increase in coverage from southeast MT into western SD. The
environment across parts of western NE and vicinity has become
favorable for tornadoes this evening, including strong-tornado
potential. See MCD 580 for more information. 

Some threat for hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will also
persist through the evening from southeast MT into western SD. Late
tonight, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, with at least
an isolated threat of hail and strong/damaging gusts eventually
spreading into parts of MN and northern IA before the end of the
period. 

...Central/southern High Plains...
Despite a volatile environment (as noted in the 00Z AMA sounding),
storms have struggled to initiate near the dryline from western KS
into the TX Panhandle. There remains a narrow window of opportunity
for storm initiation near the dryline through dusk, though
confidence is not high due to generally nebulous large-scale ascent.
A Slight Risk has been maintained for the remaining conditional
threat this evening across the southern High Plains. 

Farther south, a cluster of initially high-based convection earlier
intensified near/east of Lubbock. If convection in this area can
become surface-based, then a couple of supercells could evolve with
all severe hazards possible. However, recent trends suggest this
activity may continue to weaken with time. 

...Central MS vicinity...
A couple stronger storms persist this evening across central MS,
within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A
general weakening trend is expected to continue with time, though
some localized threat for hail or damaging gusts may continue for
part of the evening.

..Dean.. 04/28/2025

StormPrep