Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with broad troughing across the eastern US and a surface low tracking northeastward across the Great Lakes. A cold front will stretch from the northeastern US southward into the southern Plains, shifting eastward on D4/Thursday across the Ohio Valley into the southeastern US. Beyond D4/Thursday, heights will begin to rise across the Plains as an upper level high strengthens, which will limit the severe threat through the end of the extended. ...D4/Thursday - Tennessee and Ohio Valley... On D4/Thursday, thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front across portions of the Ohio Valley into the southern Mississippi Valley. Model solutions differ on how much instability will be available across Tennessee into the Ohio Valley, where the strongest flow aloft will reside. There appears to be little overlap between the better flow aloft and any meaningful instability, which keeps probabilities too low to include areas in the extended. However, some instances of wind and hail from stronger storms will be possible across portions of Tennessee into Ohio. ...D5/Friday - Southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline in southwestern Texas on D5/Friday. During this period, heights aloft will be rising, which will likely work to limit overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop with potential for large hail and severe wind. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities.