SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some strong-tornado potential. ...Upper Midwest... Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential. Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward through the evening. Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before weakening later tonight. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity... A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening, with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the evening. ...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO... Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening. There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this area. Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms that can remain surface based. ..Dean.. 04/29/2025