MD 0592 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 182… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...
Valid 290013Z - 290145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk of very large
hail, with an increasing tornado risk into this evening (00-02Z).
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercell clusters are tracking
northeastward across northwest Texas this evening. These storms are
evolving east of a dryline bulge, where temperatures have warmed
into the 80s amid upper 60s to around 70 dewpoints -- beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP
data), characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph, should
continue to favor a risk of very large hail. However, as the
low-level jet increases over the next couple hours, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs should expand, favoring an increasing tornado
risk -- especially as storms track northeastward toward the Red
River through 02Z. Around of 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH will
conditionally support a strong tornado with any established
right-moving supercells that evolve.
..Weinman.. 04/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
