MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO/IL INTO NORTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Areas affected...southern MO/IL into northern AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 291330Z - 291500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will persist with a bowing
cluster of storms moving across southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into
southwest MO/far northwest AR has produced wind damage and severe
gusts recently at Miami, OK near the OK/MO border. The KINX VWP
suggests rear-inflow near 40 kt behind this bowing cluster that is
quickly moving east at around 50-60 kt. Downstream across southern
MO/northern AR, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F with
temperatures already starting out in the low 70s this morning. This
is supporting modest instability, which may increase some through
the remainder of the morning/early afternoon given areas of clear to
scattered cloudiness ahead of the system. While the bulk of this
convection may remain over southern MO, some forecast guidance
suggests southward development on the southwest flank may occur over
northern AR. Eventually, convection will move into southern IL later
this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
soon across portions of the MCD area.
..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 37829405 38139104 38348907 36998863 36088949 35839066
35409214 35699448 36229491 36819486 37279475 37829405
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN