SPC Apr 30, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with
the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the
ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex
over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective
complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the
Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with
western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another,
more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary
from prior convection extends from south-central OK through
southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the
stationary front over central AR.

The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward
throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the
southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that
extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin
translating back northward as a warm front. 

...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South...
The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and
northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout
much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely
remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX.
Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system
throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern
extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its
organized character limits the predictability of where that will
occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to
potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting
reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. 

The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the
more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the
deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep
convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm
development appears probable across central TX as the surface low
and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest
shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline
within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse
rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result
in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a
belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist,
supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs.
The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including tornadoes.

Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal
MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley,
with at least an isolated severe threat.  

...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK...
Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the
southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates
will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even
though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime.
These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX
before weakening. 

...Parts of MS/OH Valleys...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest
low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster
currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear
across the region suggest there is some potential for at least
transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado.

...Southern VA/northern NC...
Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across
parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but
steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow
winds with the strongest storms.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025

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