SPC May 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF  SRN OK...NRN TX...

CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. 
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle.  In advance of this activity, an
increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.  

As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z.  Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River.  Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection.  It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak.  The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest. 

Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

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