SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening. Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025