SPC MD 640

MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206… FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...

Valid 020206Z - 020400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours
across central Pennsylvania, but a general weakening trend is
expected through 03 UTC amid the onset of nocturnal cooling.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and RAP analyses show an
expansive cold pool in place across central PA in the wake of a
thunderstorm cluster earlier this evening. However, VWP observations
from KCCX continue to show strong warm advection within the lowest
1-2 km AGL, which is not only supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2, but is also maintaining modest warm/moist advection
into the region from the south/southeast where dewpoints remain in
the low to mid 60s. Consequently, sufficient buoyancy remains in
place across the region to support deep convection - as evidenced by
cooling cloud top temperatures and increasing echo tops over the
past 30 minutes. Given sufficient (albeit limited) buoyancy and
strong low-level wind shear, storm organization remains possible
with an attendant threat for damaging winds in the near term across
central PA. Beyond 03 UTC, confidence in this threat wanes as
nocturnal cooling will continue to promote increasing low-level
inhibition and diminishing buoyancy.

..Moore.. 05/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...

LAT...LON   39977890 40737876 41077846 41267808 41267763 41047722
            40687715 40337716 39987738 39797769 39747837 39807876
            39977890 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

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