SPC MD 641

MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 020214Z - 020345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for much
of Oklahoma. Hail and wind are possible with overnight convection.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging southeast
across the High Plains, currently extending from western KS into the
western TX Panhandle. A loosely organized band of thunderstorms has
developed ahead of this feature and should continue propagating
toward western OK over the next few hours. Additionally, surface
boundary has sharpened a bit downstream, extending from near
TUL-southern McClain County-near Lawton. As 1km flow increases into
this frontal corridor later this evening it appears this boundary
may encourage robust thunderstorm development. Most high-res models
favor some version of this scenario, and strong shear will prove
beneficial in potential organization. Hail and damaging winds are
the primary concern and a severe thunderstorm watch appears
warranted.

..Darrow/Smith.. 05/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36289967 35999531 33969511 34259990 36289967 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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