SPC MD 643

MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY

Mesoscale Discussion 0643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Mid-South to TN Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 021328Z - 021500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed to
address severe-thunderstorm development eastward from the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION...Multiple, probable severe thunderstorms have recently
developed around the greater Memphis vicinity of the Mid-South.
While slightly elevated at this time, downstream insolation should
yield a transition to mainly surface-based storms in the next couple
hours. Overnight CAM signals appear too slow on timing, evolution to
broader multicell clustering with transient supercells seems
probable into midday. 12Z Nashville observed sounding and recent
Memphis VWP data sampled minimal MLCIN along with moderate westerly
speed shear. This should support large hail as the primary near-term
threat, along with increasing damaging wind potential later this
morning.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36078982 36368903 36838802 36978650 36968549 36618535
            36058550 35118684 34578780 34158856 34138943 34248997
            34589045 35199019 36078982 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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