SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025