SPC May 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast
into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts
of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and
just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel
cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to
sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move
eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail,
and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe
storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist
and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There
is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL
Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably
sheared environment. 

From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters
are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability.
Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally
organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and
hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the
evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues
to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may
move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly
strengthening low-level jet. 

...Far West Texas...
A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far
West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient
deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated
strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. 

...Parts of NV/ID/OR...
High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally
severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized
severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already
meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Dean.. 05/04/2025

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