SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025