SPC May 6, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind
gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight
across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms
will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central
Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida.

...Southern High Plains...
According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over
the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow
is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude
shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is
analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale
ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered
thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of
Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas
into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed
from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of
low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where
surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the
moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the
RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a
zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also
developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in
response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. 

The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability
axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75
knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near
8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large
hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores.
Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of
severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An
isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may
increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up
across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into
the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe
threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as
the MCS moves eastward.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley.
South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas
and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern
Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some
being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the
lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP
forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate
deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat
over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the
primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western
Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability
and shear is maximized, according to the RAP.

...Dakotas...
Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near
a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South
Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front,
the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal
for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail
and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours.

...Florida...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern
part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in
response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and
is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the
RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next
hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient
for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms.

..Broyles.. 05/06/2025

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