SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025