SPC May 7, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an
isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this
evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of
west Texas.

...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi
Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal
Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing.
An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana,
along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from
southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move
eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS,
rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind
damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has
0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an
isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this
evening.

Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a
very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south
Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The
strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville,
Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell
development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle
shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and
severe gusts will be possible.

...West Texas...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across
eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low
across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm
storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the
Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening
near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for
hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2025

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