SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025