SPC May 7, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast.

...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast...
A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South
Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial
effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the
upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity.
The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas
along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some
lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day
outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an
upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf.

Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day
deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given
the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse
rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal
cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These
thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises
and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms
could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic
airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely
remain isolated and marginal overall. 

...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex..
The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the
south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by
tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly
mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface
low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is
expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool
pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE
plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or
locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late
afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential
might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates
in proximity to the upper low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025

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