SPC MD 731

MD 0731 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SERN MS…SWRN AL…WRN FL PNHDL


Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MS...swrn AL...wrn FL PNHDL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 070322Z - 070515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...There still appears potential for convection to become
better organized and intensify through Midnight-2 AM CDT,
accompanied by an increase in potential for strong to severe surface
gusts.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is generally being
maintained within a broader area of convection, which continues to
spread eastward with large-forcing for ascent across the lower
Mississippi Valley.  One relatively broad cyclonic mesoscale
circulation remains evident near a clustering of persistent strong
convection, now near a remnant weak baroclinic zone east of Natchez
MS.  There still appears potential for this circulation to
strengthen along the thermal gradient, particularly as long as
south/southeasterly updraft inflow continues to emanate from a moist
low-level environment characterized by sizable CAPE.  This appears
to extend as far east as the Florida Panhandle.  03Z surface
observations suggest that convection may be contributing to a
notable surface pressure perturbation, with 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface
pressure rises sampled at Greenwood, Jackson, Brookhaven County
Airport MS and Baton Rouge LA, and much weaker rises to weak falls
downstream.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32468929 32448834 31928774 31298672 30298738 30058753
            30368919 30528989 31058980 31508959 32468929 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

StormPrep