MD 0741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Areas affected...Portions of far Western and South-Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081632Z - 081830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of large to very large hail and severe
winds possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity ongoing near the Trans Pecos and
Davis Mountains is showing an uptick in intensity over the last 30
minutes. Additionally, cumulus development further south across the
Texas Big Bend is noted on visible satellite. Further thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon as a weak shortwave shifts
eastward and the current activity shifts south and eastward through
time.
The environment across this region is characterized by MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and deep layer
shear 45-50 kts. Further daytime heating and moist advection will
lead to increase in instability through the afternoon. This regime
will support a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of
large to very large hail (some 2-2.5 in) and severe wind. There is
some uncertainty on when the most robust convection will develop
beyond the ongoing thunderstorms. This will be monitored for watch
potential this afternoon.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29560454 29830464 30310420 30520361 30720301 30820260
30870201 30770137 30560093 30200066 29820049 29570051
29370064 29270082 29310092 29690155 29730207 29700251
29490269 29070288 28920309 28930344 29030360 29200394
29360422 29560454