SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025