SPC May 9, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas
such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North
Carolina/far southeast Virginia.

...Florida/coastal Southeast...
Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will
occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the
middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS
over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The
relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the
northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where
guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the
2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during
the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze
influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.
Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf
should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf
Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could
occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida
Panhandle vicinity.

...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland...
The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the
central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region
today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its
base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb).
Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move
into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass
recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface
low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not
entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally
severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast
Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles
would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization,
with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an
isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early
evening.

..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025

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