SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025