SPC May 10, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may
occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida,
southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with
strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this
afternoon and evening.

...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA...
Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over
the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable
warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues,
a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas,
with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear.
However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak
surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward
progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately
strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging
winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across
the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.
Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief
tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the
frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper
low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist
southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info
for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion
757.

...Montana/Idaho...
Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor
widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon.
Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud
layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger
cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters
are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread
into northern/northeast Montana during the evening.

..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025

StormPrep