SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the
northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally
damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into
Sunday morning.

...Southeast...
Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near
the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far
southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a
few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of
this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower
Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and
localized damaging winds are the primary hazards.

Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection
redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions
of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into
far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This
will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of
a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional
deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm
development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC
ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate
low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds
will remain possible through 12Z.

...Northern Rockies...
A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this
evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID
into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity
should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts
will be possible.

..Grams.. 05/11/2025

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