SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025