SPC May 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND
WESTERN ND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of
the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A
low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across
central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning.

...Northern Great Plains/Rockies...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts
of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND
where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain
common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe
wind threat expected to cease towards late evening.

Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two
remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region
of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the
primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is
possible within the post-frontal convective regime. 

...Southeast...
Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive
convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area
ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of
guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will
occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA
vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA.
This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop
surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere,
localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards
the GA/SC coast through the overnight.

..Grams.. 05/12/2025

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