SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025