SPC May 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High
Plains.

...Discussion...
The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and
Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning
daylight and a cooling boundary layer. 

A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North
Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few
more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable
environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with
a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. 

An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the
western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across
central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger
mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of
this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in
guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated
hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability
should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Bentley.. 05/14/2025

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