SPC MD 801

MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN


Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 160247Z - 160445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will increase in the next
couple hours with an MCS approaching from the west. A watch will
likely be issued for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is advancing eastward at
around 40-50 kt across western Lower MI -- with a history of severe
wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. Around 40-50 kt of line-orthogonal
deep-layer shear (per GRR/DTX VWP data), and middle 60s
boundary-layer dewpoints, should continue to favor deep/intense
updrafts along the leading-edge gust front. Given the expectation
for this well-established system to be maintained with eastward
extent into parts of eastern Lower MI, posing a continued risk of
severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado or two, a
downstream watch issuance is likely for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42118438 42458436 43978453 44688443 44848404 44738345
            44378298 43368272 42498281 42028312 41808366 41798415
            42118438 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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