SPC MD 809

MD 0809 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN MISSOURI…FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...far
northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161411Z - 161645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells may develop over the next few
hours, from far northeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri. Very large hail is likely with any development,
and tornado risk will develop over time.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery clearly show a
cold front extending from northwest TX into eastern OK and toward
northwest MO, with a warm front rapidly pushing north across
northern AR into southern MO. Satellite presentation across the warm
sector indicates both a very moist air mass, with heating and mixing
likely. The 12Z LZK sounding depicts the robust moisture and
instability, with minimal real capping in place.

As surface theta-e develops northward beneath the midlevel
temperature gradient, and, the cold front pushes east into the
heating air mass, at least isolated, early (midday) activity may
develop given no cap, possibly as far west as OK. Some numerical
guidance suggests this may occur, and this seem plausible. However,
coverage of severe is a bit unclear this early in the day. At any
rate, a conditional risk of very large, destructive hail exists. It
also appears low-level SRH will remain sufficient during the day for
a strong tornado risk, even as low-level winds gradually veer and
reduce bulk values at or below 200 m2/s2. With such steep lapse
rates and robust boundary layer moisture, intense updrafts should be
more than enough to compensate for any marginal low-level shear.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35549240 35319480 35519540 36079508 36849465 37169450
            37369303 37449195 37179153 36519122 35699156 35549240 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

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