SPC MD 811

MD 0811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...south-central Kentucky into parts of northern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161606Z - 161830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms may persist in the near term west
of the WW 261. Hail and locally strong gusts are most likely.

DISCUSSION...Episodes of storms continue to move eastward across KY
and northern TN within the low-level warm advection regime, and atop
existing outflows. Instability continues to strengthen over TN, and
southwesterly winds will maintain the unstable air into the existing
zone of storms/outflows. In the near term, the stronger storms in
the existing line may produce hail or locally strong gusts before
moving into WW 261 to the east. There is some chance that the
increasing instability supports a tail-end cell producing damaging
hail, and/or a cell may form ahead of the line.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36608660 36988581 37438535 37538487 37518423 37188400
            36578410 36278440 36058470 36348684 36608660 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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