SPC MD 831

MD 0831 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 269… FOR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY…NORTHERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Western West Virginia...Southern and Eastern
Kentucky...Northern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...

Valid 170312Z - 170515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will
continue over the next 2 to 3 hours. A few strong tornadoes will be
possible. As severe storms move toward the edge of WW 269, an
extension or new watch may be required.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
severe storms extending from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward into
the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the storms, moderate
instability is analyzed by the RAP from middle Tennessee northward
into central and eastern Kentucky. The storms will continue to move
into this instability, which will help maintain updraft intensity.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Nashville has strong directional
shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near
700 m2/s2. This shear environment will continue to support a tornado
threat with supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with
the most intense supercells. Also, the RAP shows a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates extending eastward across Tennessee and
southern Kentucky, suggesting that large hail will continue to be
possible with the supercells.

Over the last couple of hours, a gradual transition to a linear mode
has occurred ahead of a cold front. This line will catch up to the
more discrete cells. As this happens, the wind-damage threat will
increase and become more dominant. Severe gusts exceeding 75 mph
will be possible along the faster moving parts of the line.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36168340 37148211 37908175 38468189 38658238 38518287
            37988376 37388523 36958743 36668807 36348817 36118765
            36088558 36168340 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN

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