SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025