SPC May 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail,
damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the
southern Plains into the Arklatex region.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has
advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the
eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing
richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface
analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across
south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm
advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some
nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing
convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should
propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily
across the northern half of OK.

Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from
southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a
very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order
of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward
direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex.
Hail/wind threat continues.

..Darrow.. 05/18/2025

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