SPC MD 848

MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282… FOR ARK-LA-TEX


Mesoscale Discussion 0848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

Valid 180253Z - 180500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the
Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the
primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in
southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity
is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where
MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according
to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave
trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In
addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots.
Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep
low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat
will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more
isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak
capping inversion increases.

..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447
            33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398
            34349332 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

StormPrep